COVID19 in Germany – method based forecasts

Virtual Workshop

Monday 6 April 2020

The COVID19 pandemic dominates private and public thinking almost all around the world. Its impact on society, economic prosperity and overall subjective well-being is enormous. Important public health questions for Germany need to be answered soon: should restrictions on social contact be prolonged, lightened or tightened?

Talks at this scientific workshop will present model based analyses of COVID19 in Germany. The models can be of a mathematic, statistic or computer based nature. One explicit goal of the workshop is to understand and discuss modelling assumptions in a cooperative manner across disciplines.

Talks will last for 30 to 60 minutes. There will be ample time for discussion and exchange of ideas. One outcome of this workshop could consist in predicting the future spread of COVID19 in Germany. The workshop is scheduled from 10 am to 4 pm. The program will be announced soon.

Please contact one of the organisers if you are interested in this workshop (talks, discussion, participation).

Wolfgang Bock, Department of Mathematics, TU Kaiserslautern

Klaus Wälde, Department of Economics, JGU Mainz

Martin Wolkewitz, Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Uni Freiburg


as of 13:00 communication setup (DFNconf und skype)
14:00 Constantin Weiser Mainz Predicting from prevalence data
14:30 Viola Priesemann Göttingen Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts
15:00 Martin Wolkewitz Freiburg Reality check of SEIR model assumptions for Germany
15:30 Clemens Kreutz Freiburg SEIR modeling with uncertainties
16:00 René Glawion Hamburg Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany
16:30 Klaus Wälde Mainz Should we lift contact bans on 20 April in Germany?
17:00 Wolfgang Bock Kaiserslautern Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail
17:30 end/ discussion


Federico Bonofiglio

(Italian National Research Council)

Ralph Brinks (Universitätsklinikum Düsseldorf, Universität Siegen)
Maja von Cube (Universitätsklinik Freiburg)
Jean Roch Donsimoni (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)
Olaf Enge-Rosenblatt (Fraunhofer IIS/EAS Dresden)
Thomas Götz (Universität Koblenz Landau)
Marlon Grodd (Universitätsklinik Freiburg)
Maren Hackenberg (Universitätsklinik Freiburg)
Jacques Hermes

(Universitätsklinik Freiburg)

Holger Kirsten

(Universität Leipzig)

Oliver Mey

(Fraunhofer IIS/EAS Dresden)

Tyll Krüger

(Wroclaw University of Science and Technology)

Hilmar Schneider (Präsident IZA Bonn)
Jens Timmer (Universitätsklinik Freiburg)
Franz-Georg Wieland (Universität Freiburg)